| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Toledo | 30-20 | 1613.8 | +48.7 | 1662.5 | 64.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Eastern Michigan | 35-7 | 1662.5 | +0.4 | 1662.8 | 85.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Notre Dame | 10-27 | 1662.8 | -14.2 | 1648.7 | 8.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Nebraska | 13-31 | 1648.7 | -17.5 | 1631.2 | 34.2% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Wisconsin | 3-31 | 1631.2 | -26.3 | 1604.9 | 37.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Illinois | 37-38 | 1604.9 | -1.1 | 1603.9 | 39.4% |