| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 23-6 | 1665.6 | +18.0 | 1683.6 | 74.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Boston College | 42-40 | 1683.6 | +20.8 | 1704.4 | 32.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Youngstown State | 41-24 | 1704.4 | -39.8 | 1664.6 | 92.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | USC | 31-45 | 1664.6 | +21.3 | 1685.9 | 11.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Nebraska | 27-38 | 1681.7 | +1.3 | 1683.0 | 18.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | UCLA | 13-38 | 1683.0 | -72.9 | 1610.1 | 61.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Indiana | 13-38 | 1610.1 | +9.8 | 1619.9 | 3.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Michigan | 20-31 | 1619.9 | +8.0 | 1627.9 | 12.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Minnesota | 20-23 | 1627.9 | +9.8 | 1637.7 | 37.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Penn State | 10-28 | 1635.4 | -10.6 | 1624.8 | 14.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Iowa | 17-20 | 1624.8 | +32.0 | 1656.8 | 11.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Maryland | 38-28 | 1656.8 | +17.4 | 1674.2 | 53.5% |